Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 36.560641 43.376786 50.908264 59.819214 70.044600 81.380746 94.867759
2024-10-20 29.017005 38.673948 50.408506 65.586923 84.555455 107.322966 136.545486
2024-10-27 21.120710 31.006332 43.989780 62.020327 86.098116 116.794873 158.481619
2024-11-03 17.836949 28.319409 42.969734 64.480042 94.706252 135.036394 192.150295
2024-11-10 15.729503 26.742169 42.982375 67.981639 104.639300 155.421008 229.833374
2024-11-17 13.933526 25.234222 42.737341 70.853069 113.671002 174.973122 267.506049
2024-11-24 11.924600 22.995217 40.989712 71.113992 118.684584 188.950105 298.007419
2024-12-01 9.857760 20.268617 38.036889 69.033944 119.762938 197.008501 320.168596
2024-12-08 8.567898 18.673599 36.695006 69.305693 124.375857 210.479441 350.984843
2024-12-15 7.598650 17.497683 35.890307 70.318070 130.149042 225.967436 385.626090
2024-12-22 5.942461 14.654896 31.683586 64.899483 124.654903 223.132744 391.335333
2024-12-29 5.377394 13.963384 31.390005 66.429153 131.072289 239.831819 428.923438
2025-01-05 4.421850 12.342209 29.280394 64.781881 132.551743 249.785414 458.497507
2025-01-12 4.288441 12.612567 31.093467 70.984402 148.976664 286.525695 535.444908
2025-01-19 3.364451 10.732795 28.060202 67.167647 146.423282 290.278575 556.985112
2025-01-26 3.048155 10.327717 28.182846 69.802287 156.342744 316.656406 618.983883
2025-02-02 2.836746 10.155776 28.805354 73.550938 168.738116 348.270297 691.941088
2025-02-09 2.606889 9.872102 29.111041 76.623597 180.009524 378.493540 764.055771
2025-02-16 2.265342 9.156457 28.229190 76.902747 185.548533 398.310153 818.409444
2025-02-23 1.867485 8.135799 26.377569 74.677126 185.585726 407.585920 853.848908
2025-03-02 1.627824 7.570789 25.629602 74.967929 191.001595 427.558342 910.230847
2025-03-09 1.446953 7.158411 25.228779 76.051195 198.223487 451.492607 975.307200
2025-03-16 1.092558 5.946249 22.276340 70.251447 189.405510 442.597007 976.775714